The worst prediction of 2008 (revisited)

Sometime in early 2008 BW published the "The Worst Predictions About 2008". (Don't know how i missed it).
Anyways, so i thought i will revisit it. So here it goes...

1. "A very powerful and durable rally is in the works. But it may need another couple of days to lift off. Hold the fort and keep the faith!" —Richard Band, editor, Profitable Investing Letter, Mar. 27, 2008

At the time of the prediction, the Dow Jones industrial average was at 12,300. By late December it was at 8,500

Huh. Actually he was right. The rally was in works....It just was heading downwards...Don't beat yourself buddy, you had the right idea. The direction was just off.


2. AIG (AIG) "could have huge gains in the second quarter." —Bijan Moazami, analyst, Friedman, Billings, Ramsey, May 9, 2008

AIG..We all know what happened. Besides hes right AIG had HUGE gains. It got $150 billion worth TARP money. Hurray.

3. "I think this is a case where Freddie Mac (FRE) and Fannie Mae (FNM) are fundamentally sound. They're not in danger of going under…I think they are in good shape going forward." —Barney Frank (D-Mass.), House Financial Services Committee chairman, July 14, 2008

lol. Really. "fundamentally sound" . Wow. Around July 2008 FRE was $17.90 and FNM was 19.78. Right now they both are around $0.70. Do the math

4. "I'm not an economist but I do believe that we're growing." —President George W. Bush, in a July 15, 2008 press conference

Nope. Gross domestic product shrank at a 0.5% annual rate in the July-September quarter

I think what he meant was we are growing our debt. We are close to trillion dollars. See dint we grow from trillion to billion

5. “I think Bob Steel’s the one guy I trust to turn this bank around, which is why I’ve told you on weakness to buy Wachovia.” —Jim Cramer, CNBC commentator, Mar. 11, 2008

Two weeks later, Wachovia came within hours of failure as depositors fled. Steel eventually agreed to a takeover by Wells Fargo. Wachovia shares lost half their value from Sept. 15 to Dec. 29.

After the Bear Stearns call, Mr.Cramer you have left a lot of us speechless. Here is Bear Sterns re-re-re-visited

6. "Existing-Home Sales to Trend Up in 2008" —Headline of a National Association of Realtors press release, Dec. 9, 2007

On Dec. 23, 2008, the group said November sales were running at an annual rate of 4.5 million—down 11% from a year earlier—in the worst housing slump since the Depression

The best way to describe the above is when i was reading this morning the headline on CNN "Even Tim Geithner Can't Sell His Own Home" ...Really Timmy G. The Treasury Secretary...LOL

7. "I think you'll see [oil prices at] $150 a barrel by the end of the year" —T. Boone Pickens, June 20, 2008

Oil was then around $135 a barrel. By late December it was below $40.

This is actually the first prediction i like. $60 gas. Not bad.

8. "I expect there will be some failures. … I don't anticipate any serious problems of that sort among the large internationally active banks that make up a very substantial part of our banking system." —Ben Bernanke, Federal Reserve chairman, Feb. 28, 2008

In September, Washington Mutual became the largest financial institution in U.S. history to fail. Citigroup (C) needed an even bigger rescue in November.

Well the term "some" is loosely attached. Apart from GM and Lehman, Here is a list of banks below that failed is also called as "some"

9. "In today's regulatory environment, it's virtually impossible to violate rules." —Bernard Madoff, money manager, Oct. 20, 2007

About a year later, Madoff—who once headed the Nasdaq Stock Market—told investigators he had cost his investors $50 billion in an alleged Ponzi scheme.

10. "There's growing evidence that parts of the debt markets…are coming back to life." —Peter Coy and Mara Der Hovanesian, BusinessWeek, Oct. 1, 2007.